Guidance & standards
This is a rule-of-thumb screen, not a heat loss calculation. A heat pump design, and radiators sized to run at a low flow temperature, need a proper room-by-room calculation to MCS / BS EN 12831 — accounting for fabric, glazing, ventilation and location. Use this figure to scope and quote, then do the real calculation before ordering equipment.
Oversizing is the classic mistake, especially with heat pumps. A heat pump sized well above the heat loss short-cycles, runs inefficiently and costs the customer more to run; matching it to the design heat loss is the whole point. Boilers tolerate some oversizing better, but a grossly oversized boiler still cycles and wastes gas.
Combi boilers are usually sized by hot-water flow rate, not space-heating load. A small flat might only lose 5 kW but still need a 30 kW combi to deliver a decent shower flow, so the boiler output for a combi is normally well above the heat-loss figure shown here. Size the space-heating output to the heat loss and the hot-water output to the demand.
Rule-of-thumb W/m² estimate for a quick sanity check. A heat pump design and correct radiator sizing require a full room-by-room heat loss calculation (MCS / BS EN 12831). Combi boilers are normally sized by hot-water flow rate, not heat loss, so they are usually larger than the space-heating figure above.